Sistemática para previsão de resultado empresarial baseada em cenários aplicada em uma empresa de desenvolvimento de software

Abstract

The main purpose of this is to create scenarios where the company operates by identifying the variables that most influence the results, contributing to the decision-making of managers. We performed qualitative and quantitative research with data analysis, combinations of forecasts by applying the model of Systematic Prediction Results Based on scenarios developed by Casagrande (2010), in an enterprise software developer. The business scenario goes not only to compete aggressively for larger market shares, but the primary need of qualified tools, correct evaluation provides safer parameters to predict the outcome in the face of likely scenarios, analyzing the proposed scenarios and variables that may affect them, the variable X1, ie personalized service through partners with attractive commission percentage was representing the greatest potential impact on revenue. Considering the impact of all the variables and the most likely scenarios in which the business will operate, it was possible to predict outcomes in real being of R$ 1,721,434, R$ 2,681,134 and R$ 4,132,298 for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively. The considerations concerning the comparison with virtually all data used in the study area the tool proved to be very effective, providing a more accurate prediction than expected by managers. How strong point, highlight the ease and systematic adjustment of the various scenarios. Regarding the projected results, managers said, the possibilities that the tool provides is intended to improve organizational effectiveness, where, from the projected scenarios and their realization as you can continually adapt their strategies and action plans to suit the reality that constantly changes.