Modelo de avaliação da viabilidade econômico-financeira da implantação de usinas de reciclagem de resíduos da construção civil em municípios brasileiros

Abstract

This work had as main objective to develop an evaluation model for analyzing the economic and financial feasibility of installing a waste construction recycling plant in Brazilian municipalities. For this, it was evaluated the return expectations and risks associated with its implementation. The data collection was done through bibliographical and documentary research, questionnaires sent to operating plants and on-site visits in branch companies. The evaluation model proposed for the investment project study was performed using the business model Canvas, the business plan, the multi-index method proposed by Souza and Clemente (2009) and expanded by Lima et al. (2015) through the Web application SAEVIP, which addresses the dimensions of risks and returns involved in an investment project. Also a sensitivity analysis was performed, seeking to quantify the vulnerability of the results of the investment project in relation to changes in a variable, keeping unchanged the another ones, plus a stochastic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, in order to improve the analysis of the risks involved in the project. From the model proposition, it was applied a case study in the Pato Branco - PR city. The results showed that there is economic and financial viability in the implementation of this investment project, since the average NPV is about R$ 583,919.87 and the investment recovery will materialize in 12 years (Payback), through Monte Carlo Simulation it was observed that there is a high probability (99.78%) that the investment in the URRCD of Pato Branco - PR be profitable. However, the elasticity indices showed that it is necessary to monitor the expected revenues and the estimated costs with more attention, that is, it will require a work by the managers of the URRCD, in favor of always seeking to increase the demand for the recycled aggregates, as a way to increase the revenue of the plant, as long as it does not exceed its production capacity.