Análise estatística de despesas de campanhas em eleições proporcionais municipais brasileiras

Abstract

Election campaigns involve several strategies to obtain the maximum number of votes for the parties or coalition. Campaign speding is increasing and therefore there is a need to better understand the dynamics of these resources, to enable a more effective planning of these expenses, essentially when it comes to proportional elections, where the party’s total votes are what determines the number of seats obtained by the party. Therefore, this study proposed three analyses: 1. relationship between votes and campaign expenses; 2. relationship between real expenses and expected of winning candidates; 3. relationship between the total votes and the numberof votes expected for the winning candidates. All analyzes are displayed by party and party ideology and by city, for Brazilian proportional municipal election data over the past five years. The three relationships provided models of scale laws, making it possible to verify in the first analysis that the higher the expense, more expensive is the vote for the party, in the second analysis it was found that the vote for the winning candidate is more expensive than the price the average vote in the party, the last analysis found that, the greater the number of votes, the lower the use of the party’s votes when exists coalitions of parties, the results is reversed when there isn’t coalition