Otimização econômica com análise dos riscos na produção agrícola de uma propriedade rural do oeste paranaense

Abstract

The greater liberalization and globalization of the agricultural market results in greater pressure on domestic producers. Seeking to adapt to this new market dynamics and meet the expectations of more demanding consumers, many rural producers seek to specialize in the production of commodities, which should result in better financial results. However, changes in the supply and demand relationships, protectionist policies, currency fluctuations and extreme weather events, sometimes unpredictable, can negatively and irreversibly affect the financial health of rural property. This fact is especially dramatic for the family producers, since losses due to production problems can jeopardize not only the continuity of economic activity, but also family subsistence. Given this situation, the present work sought to select the appropriate crops, to determine the resources required to develop the activities, and to adapt the Total Absolute Diversion (MOTAD) Minimization Model to the reality of family farmers. Through the use of historical series, it became possible for the model to measure the economic risks affecting agricultural production and to present in different scenarios productive plans that optimize the relation between allocated resources, income obtained and risk submitted. Based on a family property located in the western part of the state of Paraná, the proposed methodology was applied, with the results found presenting productive plans with gross incomes five times higher than the one currently practiced, without the need to hire additional labor or the need to investments in large infrastructures, only efficiently allocating the resources already available in the rural property.