Efeitos territoriais associados ao auxílio emergencial no Paraná: uma análise exploratória do desenvolvimento regional no pós-pandemia

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic caused significant socioeconomic impacts in Brazil, demanding emergency responses from the State. In this context, the Emergency Aid (Auxílio Emergencial – AE) stood out as the main temporary income transfer public policy, generating academic interest regarding its territorial effects. This thesis aimed to analyze the territorial effects associated with the AE in the state of Paraná, identifying possible relationships between the distribution of the policy and regional socioeconomic development dynamics in the post-pandemic period.The specific objectives were: (i) to construct a Proxy Indicator of Social Vulnerability (iAE), based on territorial data of AE transfers; (ii) to establish a territorial typology of the Immediate Geographic Regions (RGIs) of Paraná, according to the levels of exposure to the benefit; and (iii) to comparatively analyze five selected RGIs regarding variations in socioeconomic indicators between 2019 and 2022. The methodological approach adopted was mixed, with both qualitative and quantitative procedures, including a comprehensive literature review, document analysis, and statistical analysis of secondary data from official sources including Caixa Econômica Federal, IBGE, IPARDES, RAIS and Datasus. The spatial delimitation considered five RGIs: Pitanga and Paranaguá (with higher social vulnerability), Londrina and Marechal Cândido Rondon (with lower vulnerability), and Curitiba, the state capital. The analyzed indicators included income, education, health, public security, labor market, and housing. The analysis period covered the years 2019 to 2022, focusing on the months from March to December 2020, the period of highest volume of AE disbursements. The results revealed strong territorial heterogeneity in the distribution of the benefit, with a higher concentration of resources in regions historically characterized by greater vulnerability. In the most vulnerable RGIs, the AE contributed to maintaining basic consumption and mitigating the risks of extreme poverty. In regions with lower vulnerability, the effects were more modest but included positive impacts on local commerce and on containing the effects of the economic crisis. From a statistical perspective, the effects on socioeconomic indicators were generally modest and statistically non-significant. It is concluded that the AE partially fulfilled its role in mitigating social vulnerabilities in the short term, without structurally altering regional development dynamics. The research offers methodological contributions by proposing the iAE as a replicable tool, providing relevant inputs for public managers in the formulation of policies more sensitive to territorial specificities.