Modelo de prospecção de agendas de políticas públicas para o desenvolvimento sustentável: enfoque no pequeno produtor rural do Chaco Paraguaio

Abstract

The research aimed on proposing a model for prospecting public policy agendas to promote sustainable development in Paraguay, specifically targeting small rural producers (SRPs) in the Chaco region. To achieve this, an extensive diagnosis of Paraguay was initially conducted, revealing the country’s idiosyncrasies within the context of Latin America and Mercosur. In the first phase, a negative discrepancy was identified for the country compared to others in the bloc. Following this observation, the historical and contemporary issues of Paraguay were examined, relating to its social, productive, and political structure, with an emphasis on the actors involved in the public policy development framework, particularly regarding agricultural expansion in the Chaco and the state’s relationship with the region. The central role of the soybean complex and Brazilian (Brasiguayans) producers in shaping national scenarios and significant land conflicts in the country was noted, resulting in the displacement of peasants and indigenous communities. The capitalist expansion front in the Chaco warns of a future of extensive and unsustainable agricultural model expansion in the region. In light of this, new productive sectors were sought that could promote sustainable regional development while also being inclusive and viable for the SRP, especially those in the Chaco. This began with a bibliographic analysis and field visits to assess the Forestry and Livestock sectors using a SWOT matrix, as these sectors have accumulated experience in the country, evaluating complementary and sustainable alternatives from them, which led to agroforestry and silvopastoral systems as alternatives. Subsequently, a systemic approach was applied to the prospecting model, considering economic, social, environmental, technological, and feasibility aspects to create a framework with sixteen policies to be evaluated and validated by Paraguayan experts. Methodologically, a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses, interviews, field visits, and the incorporation of the Delphi Methodology with Paraguayan specialists was used to assess the prospective policy agendas. The findings highlighted the strategic importance of the Chaco region and indicated the viability of agroforestry and silvopastoral programs for promoting sustainable development, focusing on the SRP of Paraguay. The results indicate that the following policies are most important for regional sustainable development: rural credit programs with differentiated rates for SRP; training and capacity-building for regional agents; support for the formation of cooperatives and/or regional associations; and continued technical support in the field. Additionally, the importance of increased investment in education, expansion of the internet, and logistical infrastructure for the Chaco is emphasized, along with the potential for creating a national forced savings program. Furthermore, the developed model outlines a possible path for prospecting agendas in different complex scenarios to be replicated later in other sectors, such as tourism. The main difficulties identified for the implementation of the proposed agendas relate to structural corruption, irregular land ownership titles, and the patrimonial model of public policies in Paraguay.