Aspectos financeiros do Fundo de Financiamento ao Estudante do Ensino Superior (FIES): análise das políticas de renegociação e seus impactos na inadimplência e sustentabilidade do programa

Abstract

The financing of higher education in Brazil represents one of the greatest challenges of contemporary public policy, especially given the expansion of the private sector and the State’s fiscal limitations. In this context, the Student Financing Fund (FIES) has been consolidated as the main instrument for access to university education for low-income students. However, the program began to face serious financial imbalances, marked by rising default rates, regulatory fragility, and the absence of permanent mechanisms for renegotiation and efficient management of contracts. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the renegotiation policies implemented between 2018 and 2024, analyzing their impact on default rates and the program’s fiscal sustainability. The methodology includes a systematic literature review, document analysis, and examination of official data from FNDE, MEC, and TCU. The results indicate that, although the renegotiations temporarily reduced default rates, they did not address the structural causes of financial imbalance, maintaining a fixed repayment model disconnected from the beneficiary’s income. As a technical-technological product, the study proposes “FIES Sustentável” (Sustainable FIES), a new regulatory framework that seeks to reform the legal and institutional structure of the program, replacing ad hoc amnesty and renegotiation policies with a permanent, predictable, and automated debt management system. The model aims to reconcile social inclusion, administrative efficiency, and fiscal responsibility. It is concluded that the sustainability of FIES requires a regulatory restructuring that harmonizes social justice, financial viability, and the strengthening of the State’s role in guaranteeing the right to higher education.