Estimação de disponibilidade em sistemas de geração fotovoltaica a partir de modelo de simulação baseado em redes de Petri temporizadas

Abstract

In solar photovoltaic power generation systems, availability is a metric that impacts di- rectly on generation capacity. In order to reveal availability levels, a photovoltaic system is usually constructed and measured. Besides to be expensive and time consuming, this approach fails to provide in-advance estimations that could bene t planning, dimensio- ning, and predictive maintenance. This paper proposes a Petri Net-based model that can anticipate, within a short period of time, availability levels for photovoltaic systems with di erent sizes, architectures, generation pro les, and stages of construction. The model is developed from the investigation of the possible failures of the system components, their interrelationships and the determination of their respective lifetime distributions. By re- ceiving a set of o ine input parameters, the model can be exploited in advance, before actually constructing the real infrastructure to be measured. Finally, the model is used in the study of a real photovoltaic solar system, with simulations being performed in the MOCA-RP software, considering di erent scenarios, for the investigation of availability and other metrics of interest, which also contribute to the management and contingency of the investigated system.