Aplicação de métodos de previsão de demanda de um produto em uma indústria de alimentos do Paraná

Abstract

Demand forecasting plays an important role for organizations to gain competitive advantages, the it serves as a tool for planning and decision making in various areas que involves the production of goods and services, such as the management of the supply chain, the inventory management and production planning. But for the use of the information found is Necessary to check its accuracy. The research was exploratory, literature, where it Conducted a case study with the purpose of application. Developing In this work, we selected the product of greater financial then importance of the company, we Applied the Most Suitable for the characteristics of time-series forecasting methods in order to find The most agreed values. Quantitative methods of forecasting time series Were employed the method of Holt-Winters Multiplicative and the Additive Holt-Winter. After the analysis of forecast errors, the chosen and the Proposed a support tool outlets of operations management decision method is the method of Holt-Winters additive since it was more assertive than the Multiplicative method.