Viabilidade financeira da produção de alface crespa no cultivo tradicional e no cultivo hidropônico: estudo multicasos

Abstract

Agribusiness is one of the main economic activities of Brazil, accounting for a large part of GDP. The vegetables are part of the branch. Among them is crisp lettuce, considered to be consumers’favorite. The most popular form of crisp lettuce cultivation is in the field, but in recent years hydroponic cultivation is becoming more and more common, which corresponds to the cultivation in water associated with a nutrient solution, without contact with the soil, being considered a clean crop. Both models have negative and positive points financially. The use of analyzes such as the Risco x Return, cash flows, minimum attractiveness ratio (TMA), net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), payback, cost benefit index, to calculate the (ROA) and multi-index methodology (degree of commitment of the revenue, risk management, business risk, TMA/TIR, Payback/N) allow the comparison between the two methods of cultivation in order to identify which is the most financially viable for the producer. The Monte Carlo Simulation assists in the approximation of values with reality, as it generates several scenarios in a random and probabilistic way. The present study had the objective of analyzing the financial feasibility of cultivation methods in the field and hydroponics of curly lettuce in São José dos Pinhais, Paraná. In order to reach the objective, interviews were conducted with two AgroX and AgroY producers (fictitious names). The result of the interviews was transformed into tables and these transformed into cash flows for 1 hectare and 10 years of project. From positive and increasing hydroponic cash flow and positive, but decreasing, cash flows in the field, with a TMA of 9%, there was an IRR of 73% in the field and 27% in hydroponic cultivation. A NPV of R $ 66,278.68 in the field and R $ 1,042,213.09 in hydroponic cultivation. Discounted payback in the field was 1.53 years and 4.33 years in hydroponic cultivation. Regarding multi-index methodology, ROIA was 16.69% in the field and 7% in hydroponic cultivation. The three risk indicators were higher in the field (degree of commitment of the revenue, risk management and business risk) and two were higher in hydroponic cultivation (TMA / TIR and Payback / N). The Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 interactions and a confidence level of 95% confirmed the NPV and IRR values both in the field and hydroponic cultivation (average of R $ 66,157.43, 75%, R $ 1,042,273.50, 27% respectively). With the data presented, it is concluded that the hydroponic cultivation is more financially viable in São José dos Pinhais, in Paraná, because for the projection of the 10 years that the study did, it is concluded that the viability of cultivation in the field tends to fall, a quick return, its revenue for 1 hectare is lower than the hydroponic crop for the same area. Also, even with a high initial investment and a slower return, the model is promising and presents a positive annual surplus over the 10-year project to 1 hectare.